\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This adjustment<\/a>, he explained, is driven by growing confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and a significant cooling in the labor market. \"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,\" he emphasized, pointing to a delicate balance the Fed aims to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

After a prolonged period of high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, Powell's declaration marks a pivotal moment. \"The time has come for policy to adjust,\" Powell stated, signaling the Fed's readiness to pivot towards easing its monetary stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This adjustment<\/a>, he explained, is driven by growing confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and a significant cooling in the labor market. \"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,\" he emphasized, pointing to a delicate balance the Fed aims to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's latest remarks have set the stage for a significant shift in US monetary policy, Coindesk reported. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell confirmed what many had anticipated: rate cuts are likely coming in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a prolonged period of high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, Powell's declaration marks a pivotal moment. \"The time has come for policy to adjust,\" Powell stated, signaling the Fed's readiness to pivot towards easing its monetary stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This adjustment<\/a>, he explained, is driven by growing confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and a significant cooling in the labor market. \"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,\" he emphasized, pointing to a delicate balance the Fed aims to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
  • The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has increased to 32.5%, although markets still favor a smaller 25 basis point reduction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's latest remarks have set the stage for a significant shift in US monetary policy, Coindesk reported. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell confirmed what many had anticipated: rate cuts are likely coming in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    After a prolonged period of high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, Powell's declaration marks a pivotal moment. \"The time has come for policy to adjust,\" Powell stated, signaling the Fed's readiness to pivot towards easing its monetary stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This adjustment<\/a>, he explained, is driven by growing confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and a significant cooling in the labor market. \"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,\" he emphasized, pointing to a delicate balance the Fed aims to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

    U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

    The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

    U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

    U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

    US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

    Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

    Most Read

    Subscribe To Our Newsletter

    By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

    Follow The Distributed

    ADVERTISEMENT
    \n
  • Powell's announcement led to a positive response in financial markets, with Bitcoin, traditional stock indices, and gold surging.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has increased to 32.5%, although markets still favor a smaller 25 basis point reduction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's latest remarks have set the stage for a significant shift in US monetary policy, Coindesk reported. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell confirmed what many had anticipated: rate cuts are likely coming in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    After a prolonged period of high interest rates aimed at curbing inflation, Powell's declaration marks a pivotal moment. \"The time has come for policy to adjust,\" Powell stated, signaling the Fed's readiness to pivot towards easing its monetary stance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This adjustment<\/a>, he explained, is driven by growing confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target and a significant cooling in the labor market. \"We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,\" he emphasized, pointing to a delicate balance the Fed aims to maintain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Market Reactions To Powell's Speech<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The immediate response to Powell's speech was positive across the board. Bitcoin surged by over 1%, reaching $61,900, reflecting increased optimism among investors. Traditional markets mirrored this sentiment, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.7% and the S&P 500 rising by 1.2%. Even gold, often seen as a haven, experienced a 1% increase. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped five basis points to 3.80%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, the central question remains: Will the Fed opt for a 25- or 50-basis-point rate cut? While markets currently favor a 25-basis-point reduction, the likelihood of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut has increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 32.5%, up from 24% just a day ago. Upcoming economic data, particularly the August employment and inflation reports, will play a crucial role in the Fed's final decision. These reports will provide the necessary clarity on whether the US economy is indeed on a sustainable path to the Fed's inflation target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Lower interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the US dollar, which can, in turn, support assets that are seen as alternatives to the dollar, such as gold and Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell Signals September Rate Cut, Sending Markets Higher","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"feds-chairman-jerome-powell-signals-september-rate-cut-sending-markets-higher","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-26 01:34:41","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-25 15:34:41","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18365","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16603,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-29 02:01:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:01:03","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street stocks fell on Thursday as the newest economic data showed that the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years in the first quarter while inflation accelerated. At the same time, disappointing results from Meta, whose shares weakened more than 10%, also weighed on market sentiment. James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Mutual Funds in California, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"The GDP numbers definitely put a ding in the paradigm that markets were hanging onto for equities in terms of high growth; and if you don't have high growth that will translate to lower-than-expected earnings.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2024 while analysts had expected a 2.5% pace of first-quarter growth. The rise in GDP was mainly due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, partially offset by a reduction in private inventory investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    By comparison, gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rose 4.9% in the three months before that. This latest GDP report is the freshest sign that the economy is cooling off, even as inflation stays firm and stickier inflation is pushing off expectations about when and how much the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Monetary Policy And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. The March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday but according to LSEG data, money markets are currently anticipating approximately 36 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts for this year, which represents a significant decrease from the roughly 150 basis points expected at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    CME Group's FedWatch tool also reported that traders significantly reduced their expectations for a July rate cut as they believe that the Fed wants to see more data points to give them confidence they'll achieve their 2% inflation goal. It is also important to mention that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, indicating that labor market conditions remain tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Traders are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still does not point to recession, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. The recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Fell As New Data Revealed U.S. Economic Growth Was Slower Than Anticipated","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-fell-as-new-data-revealed-u-s-economic-growth-was-slower-than-anticipated","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-29 02:10:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-28 16:10:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16603","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16317,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-14 20:52:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:48","post_content":"\n

    U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after initially rising, driven by widespread selling as investors became nervous ahead of an important inflation report that could impact the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The focus is on the March release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Wednesday, which is anticipated to reveal an increase in headline inflation to 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The core figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year, versus 3.8% in February. Dave Grecsek, managing director of investment strategy & research at Aspiriant said that at the moment, three rate cuts this year seem a little demanding and added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Given the strength of the economic data, it's getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Institute For Supply Management Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Last week, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A strong jobs report from last Friday showed that U.S. employers hired far more workers in March than expected and continued to lift wages at a steady pace which also reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Because the U.S. economy remains robust, investors have been scaling back expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Present forecasts, indicating approximately a 60-basis-point reduction in 2024, are the lowest since October, contrasting sharply with the approximately 150 basis points expected at the beginning of 2024, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is also important to mention that CME's FedWatch Tool reported this Tuesday that traders now see a 57% chance of a 25 bps cut in June which is down from 64% last week. Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to talk later in the week and their speech could serve as crucial indicators of the central bank's stance on policy easing.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. stocks Fell On Tuesday As Investors Grew Nervous Ahead Of Inflation Data","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-fell-on-tuesday-as-investors-grew-nervous-ahead-of-inflation-data","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-14 20:52:53","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-14 10:52:53","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16317","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16167,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-04-06 03:41:12","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:12","post_content":"\n

    The U.S. corporate bond market is ablaze with activity, fueled by an insatiable appetite for credit. Investors are racing to secure returns before the Federal Reserve <\/a>wields its interest rate-cutting scalpel. The result? A second-quarter rally that may catapult bond levels to heights not witnessed in three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Picture this: Credit markets are a bustling marketplace, teeming with eager buyers. Their bet? That the Fed will deftly orchestrate a soft landing, curbing inflation without plunging us into a recession. And once that delicate balance is achieved, the Fed will wield its interest rate-cutting wand to bolster economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    On March 21, the premium paid by companies over Treasuries known as credit spreads reached their tightest levels in two years. Investment-grade rated bonds clocked in at 91 basis points, while their junk-rated counterparts hit 305 basis points. These numbers tell a tale of confidence investors are placing their chips on a well-calibrated Fed strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Insurance companies and pension plans, those behemoths of the financial world, are swimming in a sea of capital. Clients, eager to capitalize on higher interest rates, are pouring money into their coffers. The result? A frenzied hunt for corporate bonds. But here\u2019s the catch: supply might fall short. The demand is voracious, yet new issuance struggles to keep pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates By 25 Basis Points<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investment Grade Companies <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    In the first quarter alone, investment-grade companies raised a staggering $538 billion. That\u2019s a whopping 40% of the anticipated $1.3 trillion bond supply for the entire year, according to data from Informa Global Markets. New bond offerings? Oversubscribed three to four times on average. The hunger for yield is palpable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Morgan Stanley\u2019s credit strategist, Vishwas Patkar, draws parallels to a bygone era. Remember the mid-1990s? After four rate cuts in 1995, the Fed maintained elevated rates for an extended period. Credit markets remained resilient, and spreads hit modern-era lows of 56 basis points, even as rates climbed. Patkar muses that we might revisit those levels \u2013 perhaps as low as 75 basis points \u2013 if a soft landing materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As we navigate this credit frenzy, keep an eye on the spread. Bank of America strategists predict a tightening to around 80 basis points in the coming month \u2013 inching closer to the 77 basis point level touched in 2021. Their six-month spread target? A range of 100-120 basis points. The conclusion? The relentless demand for U.S. credit is steering this rally, and the road ahead promises both excitement and scrutiny.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Credit Demand Fuels Second-Quarter Surge","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-credit-demand-fuels-second-quarter-surge","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-06 03:41:17","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-05 16:41:17","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16167","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16181,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-04-03 19:44:30","post_date_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:30","post_content":"\n

    U.S. stocks are trading lower at the beginning of this trading week, weighed down by concerns among investors regarding the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, exacerbated by unexpectedly robust manufacturing data that drove Treasury yields upwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 last month, marking the highest reading and the first to surpass 50 since September 2022, up from 47.8 in February. This indicates a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector, which has faced challenges due to increased interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Following the release of the manufacturing data, benchmark 10-year and two-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in two weeks and it is important to say that the majority of S&P 500 sectors are trading lower, with the real estate, healthcare, and utilities among the worst performers. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth in Atlanta, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"If the economy is still somewhat strong and now that PMI data is starting to move up, that just suggests there could be some upside pressure in yields.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Prediction After Fed Hiked Interest Rates <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve And Interest Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, said that investors grew concerned about the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts than expected from the Federal Reserve in the wake of strong economic data and they are worried about another potential strong number this Friday in terms of new jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, the upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data, anticipated for Friday, is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for March, albeit with an increase in average earnings compared to the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing approximately 57% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points in June, and they expect two more additional cuts in the 2024 year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Besides job data this Friday, traders and investors will also focus on comments from a host of Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and San Francisco President Mary Daly, scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Dipped As Yields Climbed On The Back Of Robust Data. What Should We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-dipped-as-yields-climbed-on-the-back-of-robust-data-what-should-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-04-03 19:44:34","post_modified_gmt":"2024-04-03 08:44:34","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16181","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

    U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15757,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-08 21:43:03","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:03","post_content":"\n

    US stocks extended losses on Tuesday after the data showed that the ISM <\/a>Services PMI in the United States decreased to 52.6 points in February from 53.4 points in January of 2024. Economists expected a dip to 53 and it is also important to mention that the ISM services employment index fell 2.5 points to 48.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, a services PMI beyond 49 percent usually indicates an expansion of the overall economy which suggests the February Services PMI shows the overall economy is growing for the 14th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for February (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey Committee, said that the slight decrease in the rate of growth in February is a result of faster supplier deliveries and the contraction in the employment rate. Anthony Nieves added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions. Respondents remain concerned about inflation, employment, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>GBTC Price Prediction after Judges Raised Hope for Investors In Favour Of Grayscale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve And Economy Evaluation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve<\/a> Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will share his evaluation of the economy and potentially offer new insights into the timing of potential rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes. Given these factors, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Stocks Extended Losses On Tuesday After ISM Services PMI Came In Slightly Below The Market Expectation","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-stocks-extended-losses-on-tuesday-after-ism-services-pmi-came-in-slightly-below-the-market-expectation","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-08 21:43:10","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-08 10:43:10","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15757","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

    Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

    Most Read

    Subscribe To Our Newsletter

    By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

    Follow The Distributed

    ADVERTISEMENT
    \n