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\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

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By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

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Follow The Distributed

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\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Potential Shifts In Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Goldman Sachs' Leap Into AI: Unveils Dozen Generative Artificial Intelligence Projects<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Shifts In Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Major players leading this fundraising rush include international heavyweights BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, alongside automotive giants Toyota and Hyundai <\/a>Capital America. Industrial leaders John Deere and Caterpillar have also joined the fray through their financing divisions, following Friday's successful bond offerings from automotive manufacturers Ford Motor and General Motors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Goldman Sachs' Leap Into AI: Unveils Dozen Generative Artificial Intelligence Projects<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Shifts In Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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This accelerated pace of borrowing follows an already robust 2024, during which investment-grade companies raised $1.52 trillion \u2013 marking a 26% increase from 2023's $1.21 trillion and securing its place as the second-highest year on record for corporate bond issuance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major players leading this fundraising rush include international heavyweights BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, alongside automotive giants Toyota and Hyundai <\/a>Capital America. Industrial leaders John Deere and Caterpillar have also joined the fray through their financing divisions, following Friday's successful bond offerings from automotive manufacturers Ford Motor and General Motors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Goldman Sachs' Leap Into AI: Unveils Dozen Generative Artificial Intelligence Projects<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Shifts In Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The surge has seen 34 companies entering the investment-grade bond market in just the opening days of 2025, with 22 offerings hitting the market on Monday alone. Market analysts anticipate this wave of activity could result in nearly $65 billion in new issuance this week, with projections suggesting the monthly total could reach an impressive $200 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This accelerated pace of borrowing follows an already robust 2024, during which investment-grade companies raised $1.52 trillion \u2013 marking a 26% increase from 2023's $1.21 trillion and securing its place as the second-highest year on record for corporate bond issuance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major players leading this fundraising rush include international heavyweights BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, alongside automotive giants Toyota and Hyundai <\/a>Capital America. Industrial leaders John Deere and Caterpillar have also joined the fray through their financing divisions, following Friday's successful bond offerings from automotive manufacturers Ford Motor and General Motors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Goldman Sachs' Leap Into AI: Unveils Dozen Generative Artificial Intelligence Projects<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Shifts In Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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US corporations have launched an aggressive start to 2025's bond market, with dozens of companies rushing to secure funding in the first week of January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The surge has seen 34 companies entering the investment-grade bond market in just the opening days of 2025, with 22 offerings hitting the market on Monday alone. Market analysts anticipate this wave of activity could result in nearly $65 billion in new issuance this week, with projections suggesting the monthly total could reach an impressive $200 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This accelerated pace of borrowing follows an already robust 2024, during which investment-grade companies raised $1.52 trillion \u2013 marking a 26% increase from 2023's $1.21 trillion and securing its place as the second-highest year on record for corporate bond issuance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major players leading this fundraising rush include international heavyweights BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, alongside automotive giants Toyota and Hyundai <\/a>Capital America. Industrial leaders John Deere and Caterpillar have also joined the fray through their financing divisions, following Friday's successful bond offerings from automotive manufacturers Ford Motor and General Motors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Goldman Sachs' Leap Into AI: Unveils Dozen Generative Artificial Intelligence Projects<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Shifts In Treasury Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The timing of this issuance surge appears strategic, as companies aim to capitalize on favorable market conditions before potential shifts in Treasury yields following recent employment data. Adding to the appeal, credit spreads remain near historic lows, hovering just above their tightest levels from late November at 83 basis points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market observers note that this early-year dash for funding could prove prescient. The landscape of corporate finance faces potential reshaping as new administration policies begin to materialize throughout 2025. With economic uncertainty looming and the possibility of shifting monetary policy, companies securing funding now may be positioning themselves advantageously for the challenges ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented start to the year signals both corporate confidence and strategic foresight, as businesses move to lock in favorable rates while available. As the year unfolds, the success of this early funding wave could set the tone for corporate finance strategies throughout 2025, particularly as companies navigate the evolving economic and political landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's response to this initial surge will likely influence corporate funding decisions in the quarters ahead, potentially establishing new patterns in the relationship between policy developments and corporate financing strategies.<\/p>\n","post_title":"US Firms Flood Bond Market In Early 2025","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"us-firms-flood-bond-market-in-early-2025","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2025-01-13 04:29:27","post_modified_gmt":"2025-01-12 17:29:27","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=20019","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19961,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-12-29 15:46:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:13","post_content":"\n

The Federal Reserve is contemplating a significant overhaul of its annual bank stress testing framework, marking a potential victory for Wall Street institutions that have long pushed for greater transparency in the process. According to Reuters, the proposed changes could give banks unprecedented input into the testing models that determine their capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned reforms come as the central bank grapples with recent legal developments that have challenged federal regulatory authority, particularly the Supreme Court's landmark decision in June that overturned the long-standing Chevron doctrine of regulatory deference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the most notable changes under consideration, the Fed may allow banks to provide feedback on both the testing models and hypothetical scenarios used in these annual health checks. Additionally, the regulator is exploring the possibility of averaging results over two years to reduce volatility in capital requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These stress tests, introduced in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, serve as a cornerstone of the U.S. banking regulatory framework. They evaluate major financial institutions' ability to withstand economic shocks and determine how much capital banks must maintain as a safety buffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Fed Unveils New Capital Requirements For Big Banks, Eases Pressure On Goldman Sachs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modifications And Capital Requirements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Federal R<\/a>eserve maintained that these modifications do not alter overall capital requirements, the timing aligns with increased industry pressure for regulatory reform. Throughout the year, major financial institutions and trade associations have actively engaged with the central bank to advocate for greater stress test transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push for reform coincides with the banking industry's broader efforts to influence the Basel Endgame capital regulations. In an unprecedented move, several Wall Street institutions have suggested the possibility of legal action against federal regulators over the proposed capital rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank Policy Institute, a leading industry advocacy group and frequent critic of the current testing regime characterized the Fed's announcement as an initial step toward greater transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed changes could represent a significant shift in the relationship between banks and their regulators. With financial institutions becoming increasingly emboldened to challenge regulatory authority through legal channels, particularly in conservative-leaning courts, this move by the Fed may signal a new era of regulatory approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, these developments could lead to a more collaborative dialogue between banks and regulators, fostering better understanding and communication between both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential reduction in capital requirement volatility would provide banks with more stable financial planning capabilities, while enhanced predictability in stress testing outcomes could lead to more efficient capital management strategies. Additionally, increased scrutiny of regulatory methodologies may result in more refined and transparent assessment processes, ultimately strengthening the overall financial system's resilience while maintaining necessary oversight standards.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Federal Reserve To Make Bank Stress Tests More Transparent","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"federal-reserve-to-make-bank-stress-tests-more-transparent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-12-29 15:46:23","post_modified_gmt":"2024-12-29 04:46:23","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19961","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19458,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-11-18 02:54:48","post_date_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:48","post_content":"\n

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is sending shockwaves through the global banking sector, with European lenders bracing for an even steeper climb to match their American counterparts' profitability, Reuters reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stark contrast between U.S. and European banking trajectories, already evident since the 2008 financial crisis, looks set to widen further. While European banks have struggled with meager profits and sluggish economic growth, their American rivals have flourished, particularly in investment banking where they've captured significant market share from retreating European institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers tell a compelling story: European banking shares have declined 10% since early 2010, while U.S. banks have seen their value more than triple. The European Central Bank reports that eurozone banks' return on equity hovers around 5%, less than half of their U.S. peers' 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market's immediate reaction to Trump's victory was telling. Banking giants JPMorgan<\/a>, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley saw their shares surge, while the European banking index dipped more than 1% this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Policymakers And Banking Regulations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

European policymakers are already preparing for the shifting landscape. In a notable development, Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter and British counterpart Rachel Reeves recently discussed the implications of potential U.S. banking deregulation during bilateral talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industry experts anticipate that a Trump administration could significantly reshape the U.S. banking sector. Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, suggests that beyond rolling back parts of the Dodd-Frank law, a less restrictive regulatory environment could spark increased merger and acquisition activity, benefiting U.S. investment banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it's not all doom and gloom for European banks with significant U.S. operations. Filippo Maria Alloatti, Head of Financials Credit at Federated Hermes, points out that institutions like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and UBS could see \"positive impacts\" from their American exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, the global banking landscape appears poised for significant transformation. While U.S. banks may benefit from potential deregulation and tax cuts under a second Trump presidency, European banks might find themselves forced to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. This could catalyze much-needed consolidation in the European banking sector, already evidenced by recent merger discussions between major players like UniCredit and Commerzbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coming years may well determine whether European banks can find ways to narrow the profitability gap with their U.S. rivals or if the Atlantic divide in banking performance will continue to widen. As regulatory frameworks diverge further, the challenge for European policymakers will be maintaining financial stability while ensuring their banking sector remains internationally competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will be a crucial test for both European banks and regulators, potentially reshaping the global financial services landscape for decades to come.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Set To Soar Under Trump's Return While European Banks Navigate Tough Waters","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-set-to-soar-under-trumps-return-while-european-banks-navigate-tough-waters","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-11-18 02:54:57","post_modified_gmt":"2024-11-17 15:54:57","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19458","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16728,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-04 00:19:53","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:53","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes rose on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a more dovish stance. The attention of investors now turns to an important job report that will be released on Friday and after this report, we could have a clearer outlook on the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets currently estimate a 59% probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points happening in September, with a 70.8% likelihood of a rate cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main reason why we will not see lower interest rates earlier is the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data had not given policymakers enough confidence to ease monetary policy soon, noting that the U.S. central bank may need to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously thought. Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation remains higher than desired in the United States, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode and not ruling out (rate) cuts altogether. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits held steady at a low-level last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>European Central Bank Hints At A Possible Crypto Mining Ban<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

April Employment Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite muted jobless claims it is also important to mention that data released on this Thursday showed a drop in planned layoffs, a surge in quarterly labor costs, and a sharp deceleration in productivity, all of which throws focus on Friday's much anticipated April employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its global growth forecast, partially due to the resilience of the U.S. economy. First-quarter earnings season is almost complete, with 373 S&P 500 companies having reported their results and according to LSEG data, 77% of those companies have exceeded expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently trying to balance this two-sided narrative: the U.S. economic situation, which still remains resilient, and at the same time the inflation picture, and interest rates, which will eventually be problematic for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Stocks Advanced On The Fed's Dovish Signals. Focus Now Moves To The Job Report","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-stocks-advanced-on-the-feds-dovish-signals-focus-now-moves-to-the-job-report","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-04 00:19:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-03 14:19:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16728","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16072,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-28 23:33:15","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:15","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's<\/a> main indexes closed in red this Tuesday amid light trading ahead of crucial economic data and a long holiday weekend. For most of the day, investors displayed minimal confidence as they analyzed the unchanged three-rate-cut dot plot from last week and absorbed various data points indicating stable consumer confidence and a cautious uptick in manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the rest of the holiday-shortened week, home sales data, UMich's consumer sentiment, mortgage demand, jobless claims, and a last look at fourth-quarter GDP are taking a backseat to the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report from the Commerce Department, scheduled to be released on Friday, a day when the stock market is closed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to say that analysts anticipate a slowdown in income growth, dropping to 0.4% from the previous 1.0%, alongside a projected increase of 30 basis points in consumer spending to 0.5%. Regarding the PCE price index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, analysts anticipate a rise in the year-over-year headline number to 2.5%, while the core number is expected to remain steady at January's 2.8% figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Numbers And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Even with inflation numbers above expectations, which might prompt rate cuts in the latter part of the year, Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, said that \"the delayed effects of past rate hikes have not yet been fully realized,\" and expressed worry that the current situation on the stock markets \"might ultimately turn out to be overstated.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments warned that the risks of a sharper economic slowdown persist and he believes that equities have limited upside. Regardless, Wall Street will be closed on Friday when the report is released, market participants will have an extended weekend to think about the actual figures before responding to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants currently estimate a nearly 75% probability of the Fed implementing the first rate cut in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, a significant increase from approximately 55% observed at the beginning of last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in a recent interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Reverse Gains To End Slightly Red. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-reverse-gains-to-end-slightly-red-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-28 23:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-28 12:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16072","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15952,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-22 08:23:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:01","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes recovered on Tuesday from the previous losses as chip stocks gained ground from previous declines as Nvidia rebounded, and investors turned their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy meeting on Wednesday, seeking insights into interest rate policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to mention that Nvidia shares bounced back from previous declines following the announcement of pricing and shipping details for its highly anticipated Blackwell B200 artificial intelligence chip, which it says to be up to 30 times faster than its existing chips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors is currently on a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell and every information that the Federal Reserve could begin to lower interest rates would be beneficial for stock markets. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's optimism that the Fed's not going to surprise us a lot on Wednesday. We think three cuts are still on the table even though robust inflation data has pulled back bets for the first rate cut in June to about 59.6% from about 69% at the start of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gene Goldman also added that he anticipates that Powell will reiterate his cautious stance on inflation to the market, emphasizing that policy decisions will be contingent upon economic data. Furthermore, he expects the central bank to revise its projections for both inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Federal Funds Rates 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far into 2024, the Fed funds rate has remained paused at a range of 5.25%-5.50% and many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. Traders currently expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least two times this year but some economic analysts say that the Fed may face a difficult task in reacting to shifts in economic data without creating any large surprises too close to November\u2019s U.S. elections. Matt Eagan, head of the full direction team at Loomis, Sayles & Co., said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey don\u2019t want to be in a position where they are doing something offside during an election that could be perceived to be influencing one party or the other\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in the first half of the year but some Federal Reserve governors warned last month that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. Considering these elements, the outlook is expected to remain cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Closely Focused On The Conclusion Of The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting This Wednesday. What Developments Can We Anticipate In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-closely-focused-on-the-conclusion-of-the-federal-reserves-policy-meeting-this-wednesday-what-developments-can-we-anticipate-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-22 08:23:08","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-21 21:23:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15952","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15664,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-29 23:22:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:22:44","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for a crucial inflation report that could influence the decision for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. The spotlight has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory after a frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI) last week, which overshadowed worries about postponed rate cuts and propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials to record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets have rallied this year on bets that the Fed would start trimming rates in May but some Federal Reserve governors warned in the last couple of weeks that the interest rate cuts expected by the market in the first half of the year may have been premature. The main event of this week will be the release of January's personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which serves as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Reuters poll, it's anticipated that the PCE will have increased by 0.3% monthly in January, a slight uptick from the 0.2% rise observed in December. Year-over-year, the PCE is expected to have grown by 2.4%, down from the 2.6% increase in the previous month. Should the PCE data show higher-than-expected inflation, like recent consumer and producer price indicators, it may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, potentially leading traders to delay their expectations for rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction After Inflation Increased Above Expectations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At present, 63% of traders anticipate the Fed initiating rate cuts by June, a notable decrease from the nearly 98% recorded at the close of January, as reported by the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations for a rate cut in July are currently at 83.6%. Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston, added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"I think that investors are getting used to the concept that the Fed will not cut rates (soon). Hopes of a soft landing - where the Fed brings down inflation without severely hurting the economy are supporting market sentiment. I'm expecting a favorable print for that (PCE), indicating that the soft landing has gained more momentum.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports on gross domestic product (GDP), jobless claims, and manufacturing activity, which are also due this week, will provide additional insights into the potential timing of rate cuts. Investors will also look forward to comments from some Fed policymakers, including voting members Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, New York Fed chief John Williams, and Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, who are scheduled to speak this week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-a-crucial-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-29 23:29:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-29 12:29:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15664","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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