US Treasury yields at 3m, 2y, 10y, 30y. The 2s10s spread (10y minus 2y) is one of the most-cited recession indicators — every recession since 1980 has been preceded by an inversion.
Today's yield by maturity. A normal curve slopes upward (longer maturities pay more); a flat or inverted curve signals tight short-term policy or recession expectations.
10-year yield minus 2-year yield, in percentage points. The dashed red line is the inversion threshold — below zero, short-term yields exceed long-term, which has historically led recessions by 6-18 months.
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), series DGS3MO / DGS2 / DGS10 / DGS30. Updated hourly via ISR.